Global Fund saves 17 million lives in 2014
Programs supported by the Global Fund have saved 17 million
lives up to the end of 2014, according to the Results Report 2015 released by
the Fund. The Fund says that it is on track to reach 22 million lives saved by
December 2016, the end of the current replenishment period.
This is the first time since July 2012 that the Global Fund
has included a lives saved figure in its results announcements. At that time,
the Fund estimated that through programs it had supported, 8.7 million lives
had been saved. Since then, the Fund has been working on refinements to its
methodology for estimating lives saved.
The Global Fund said that the increase in the number of
lives saved is partly due to improved data collection and methodology and
partly due to scientific advances, innovative solutions and increased global
support.
The report said that by the end of 2014 programs supported
by the Fund also resulted in 8.1 million people receiving antiretroviral treatment
(up 22% over the previous year, according to a news release on the Fund’s
website); 13.2 million people receiving TB treatment (up 11%); and 548 million
mosquito nets being distributed.
The results report is an important tool for the Fund as it
launches its replenishment campaign for 2017-2019.
“Advances in global health are transforming communities in
ways that go way beyond what the numbers show,” said Mark Dybul, Executive
Director of the Global Fund, in the news release. “More people on treatment
means parents can actually care for their children and be productive members of
a community. Fewer infections means health centers can serve people with other
ailments.”
The results reported for the period ending in 2014 are
different from the results that the Global Fund originally reported for 2014. For
example, originally the Fund reported that by the end of 2014, it estimated
that programs supported by the Fund had put 7.3 million people on ART, had
treated 12.3 million TB cases; and had distributed 450 million mosquito nets.
The Global Fund Secretariat told GFO that the reason for the
discrepancies is that in the past when the Fund reported year-end results,
there was actually a six-month lag in the data. The results announced for 1
December 2014 were based on data that was current in July 2014 because it takes
a few months to sort through the data, which comes from many sources, discuss
it with the Fund’s partners, and determine what is reasonably accurate.
When the Fund reported mid-year results in July 2015, in
reality these were end-2014 numbers. The numbers reported in July 2015
correspond to the numbers reported in Results Report 2015 released on 21
September.
For the last few years, the Fund has been reviewing its
methodology for calculating lives saved. In the results report, the Fund said
that it is using an improved methodology “better aligned with methods used by
partners.” The Global Fund said that, as in the past, the methodology uses
models that analyze raw data. The models yield sophisticated estimates, not scientifically
exact figures. The Fund said that a group of independent technical experts
confirmed the credibility of the modeling and the estimates used by the Fund.
According to the results report, an important improvement to
the methodology was the inclusion of impact of all interventions for TB and
malaria, instead of limiting the data to the impact of mosquito nets and TB
treatment. “This is leading to higher estimates of lives saved compared to what
was recorded in previously published reports,” the Fund said.
The Global Fund said that is continuing to work with
partners to further improve the methodology. This will include factoring in the
impact of HIV prevention on the number of lives saved, which is currently not
part of model. “This may indicate that the Global Fund underestimates the
number of lives saved through its investments,” the report said. At the same
time, the Fund and its partners will review some limitations in the methodology
for estimating lives saved from TB and malaria which might over-estimate lives
saved in certain settings.
Other highlights from the results report include that by the
end of 2014 programs supported by the Global Fund have provided counseling and
testing to 423 million people, distributed more than 5.1 billion condoms, treated
more that 22 million people for STIs, provided services to 3.1 million
HIV-positive women to prevent transmission of HIV to unborn children, treated
515 million cases of malaria, averted
155 million cases of malaria and conducted indoor residual spraying in 58
million structures.
The Fund said that the number of people being treated for
multidrug-resistant forms of TB has increased four-fold since 2010, reaching
210,000.
The results report said that between 2000 and 2014, the
number of new HIV infections declined by 36% in countries supported by the
Global Fund. “Partners express optimism that the rate of averting infections
can accelerate more sharply if funding continues to grow,” the Fund said.
The Global Fund estimates that more than one-third of its
investments support building health systems; and that 55-60% of its investments
benefit women and girls. The Global Fund projects an increase of $4.5 billion
(or 52%) in domestic investments in health for the period 2015-2017 compared to
what was invested in 2012-2014.
According to the report, in the last two years, the Global
Fund has achieved savings of more than $500 million through more effective
procurement, with on-time delivery improving from 36% in 2013 to 81% in 2015.
The results report includes some country case studies. In
Tanzania, for example, the number of
identified TB cases rose sharply between
1995 and 2005, prompting the country to declare a national emergency in 2006.
The Global Fund began supporting TB programs in 2007, the report said, and
joint efforts have averted 328,000 cases and saved 195,000 lives since 2000.
“Tanzania has implemented a strong focus on joint TB/HIV interventions,
building resilient and sustainable systems for health and improving TB
detection and treatment rates,” the Fund said.
The Global Fund said that programs it supports currently save
more than two million lives a year.
According to the results report, the number of lives saved in a given country
in a particular year is estimated by subtracting the actual number of deaths
from the number of deaths that would have occurred in a scenario where key
disease interventions did not take place. “For example, in a country where
studies show that 70% of smear-positive TB patients will die in the absence of
treatment, if 1,000 smear-positive TB patients were treated in a particular
year, yet only 100 people were recorded as dying from TB, the model can
conclude that 600 lives were saved. Without treatment, 700 would have died.”
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